For better or worse: Economic strain, furlough, and relationship quality during the Covid‐19 lockdown

Objective Background Method Results Conclusion and Implications This study evaluates the role of objective and subjective measures of economic uncertainty, as well as furlough schemes, on changes in couples' relationships during the first lockdown in the UK.Most theories of relationship quality argue that economic uncertainty strains intimate relationships, leading to a deterioration in relationship quality. Few studies capture such an intense period of economic uncertainty, and the role of government policy to mitigate the impact of the economic crisis.The study employs the UK Household Longitudinal Covid‐19 surveys conducted in April–June 2020. Using multinomial logit regression models (N = 5792), we examine how self‐reported change in relationship quality is associated with socioeconomic status, subjective financial uncertainty, and change in employment situation, especially for those furloughed through the UK government's Employment Protection Scheme.The study finds that 8% of individuals reported a decline in their couple relationship quality, but 19% reported improvements. Those with higher education and household earnings were more likely to experience improvements in relationship quality. Reduced work hours or job loss was not associated with changes in relationship, although expecting a worse future financial situation was. Furlough was strongly associated with improvements in relationships, and furloughed men were slightly more likely to report an improvement in their relationships than women.Although prior research has found that economic uncertainty is detrimental to relationships, employment protection schemes seem to have mitigated some of the worst effects on families. [ FROM AUTHOR]

Scenario-based fertility projections incorporating impacts of COVID-19

This paper examines the recent declines in period fertility in the constituent countries of the UK during the past decade and speculates mechanisms through which the COVID-19 pandemic could influence childbearing in the UK. The effects are likely to differ by age and presence of children. Considering potential forces acting on individuals at different ages and family sizes, we expect that the COVID-19 pandemic will depress fertility, particularly among younger people. Because fertility at all ages was declining before the onset of the pandemic, this could mean a further decline in period fertility to historically low UK levels. We put forward a number of scenarios to examine the possible impact of the pandemic on numbers of live births. Our projections show that for three scenarios out of four, fertility is expected to decline over the next 3?years, leading to significantly fewer births annually compared with the pre-pandemic period.